Risk of Collusion: Will Groups of 3 Ruin the FIFA World Cup?

In 2026, the FIFA World Cup will for first time gather 48 men’s national teams. It consist of a group stage made 16 groups three, with best two teams in each advancing to knockout stage. Using three raises several fairness issues, including risk match fixing and schedule imbalance. this article we examine collusion. The who play last game know exactly what results let them advance Risk occurs when result qualifies both at expense third team group, can seriously tarnish tournament. We quantify how often is expected happen explain build so as minimize also collusion depends on competitive balance. Moreover, show that forbidding draws during (a rule considered by FIFA) does not eliminate fixing, that, surprisingly, 3-2-1-0 point system do better job decreasing than 3-0 system. Finally describe alternate formats 48-team would or strongly decrease